VJS 0–1 Tampere United: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

VJS

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tampere United

J. Laitinen 81'

7/18/2026

Ykkönen · Group StageMyyrmaen jalkapallostadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

VJS44%

×Draw24%

Tampere United32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VJSExpected goals in this matchTampere United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.38

VJS

1.67

Tampere United

1.38

VJS creates 21% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 22 away

1.88

creates per match

1.50

1.25

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

VJS

1.88

Tampere United

1.50

allows per match

VJS

1.25

Tampere United

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VJS+0.00on par

Tampere United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VJS ↓

Tampere United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

VJS or draw

68%

VJS or Tampere United

76%

Draw or Tampere United

56%

Winning margin

VJS wins by 2+

23%

Tampere United wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

VJS 1+ goals

81%

VJS 2+ goals

50%

VJS 3+ goals

23%

Tampere United 1+ goals

75%

Tampere United 2+ goals

40%

Tampere United 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

VJS (draw refunded)

58%

Tampere United (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VJS at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Tampere United away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VJS attack 1.88 + Tampere United defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.67

Tampere United attack 1.50 + VJS defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

VJS scores more

44%

level

24%

Tampere United scores more

32%

VJS at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "VJS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

J. Rantala

58'

J. Enbuska← O. Torniainen

58'

R. Vaisanen← J. Rantanen

67'

J. Holopainen← J. Rahja

67'

N. Kaijasilta← A. Babiker

67'

J. Merinen← O. Blommendahl

72'

L. Kyllonen

80'

O. Saksinen← O. Ojala

81'

J. Laitinen

87'

A. Nyholm← D. Hvidberg

90'

J. Georg← L. Bradbury

90+4'

R. Lehtonen

90+4'

L. Kesti← R. Lehtonen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff