Tampere United 1–0 VJS: Result & Stats

Tampere United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

VJS

J. Georg 58'

4/7/2024

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 1Tammelan Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Tampere United48%

×Draw23%

VJS30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tampere UnitedExpected goals in this matchVJS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.43

Tampere United

1.86

VJS

1.43

Tampere United creates 30% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 33 away

1.84

creates per match

1.55

1.30

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Tampere United

1.84

VJS

1.55

allows per match

Tampere United

1.30

VJS

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tampere United+0.00on par

VJS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampere United ↓

VJS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Tampere United or draw

70%

Tampere United or VJS

77%

Draw or VJS

52%

Winning margin

Tampere United wins by 2+

26%

VJS wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tampere United 1+ goals

84%

Tampere United 2+ goals

55%

Tampere United 3+ goals

28%

VJS 1+ goals

76%

VJS 2+ goals

42%

VJS 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Tampere United (draw refunded)

62%

VJS (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampere United at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.30 · 44 matches

VJS away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.88 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampere United attack 1.84 + VJS defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.86

VJS attack 1.55 + Tampere United defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tampere United scores more

48%

level

23%

VJS scores more

30%

Tampere United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tampere United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

A. Raittinen

58'

J. Georg

62'

J. Stenroos← E. Helminen

62'

T. Toijala← M. Sarlin

65'

J. Koistinen

65'

O. Saksinen← M. Rearte

72'

M. Marin

74'

E. Korhonen

78'

S. Hyvärinen← R. Auramo

81'

E. Bullock← A. Raittinen

90+4'

J. Merinen

Tampere

VJS

98

Koirikivi

87

Suutari

4

Marin

2

▼

Auramo

3

Koponen

17

Merinen

33

▼

8

9

7

29

1

13

3

25

16

▼

Helminen

10

Özcelik

23

▼

Sarlin

29

Maunuksel

11

▼

Raittinen

9

⚽

Georg

17

Paukkeri

Manager: J. Listenmaa

62'▲J. Stenroos←▼E. Helminen

62'▲T. Toijala←▼M. Sarlin

81'▲E. Bullock←▼A. Raittinen

Tampere United substitutes

7Stenroos22Toijala20Bullock5Jokinen21Lamberg30Heikkinen33Järvinen

Manager: T. Ekmark

65'▲O. Saksinen←▼M. Rearte

78'▲S. Hyvärinen←▼R. Auramo

VJS substitutes

20Saksinen26Hyvärinen1Muurinen15Olvinen22Blommendahl25Merikoski27Partanen