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VJS vs Sudet — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

VJS
VJS
FT
2 – 3
Sudet
Sudet
10/5/2019Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Round 22Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion (Vantaa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

VJS73%
×Draw15%
Sudet11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VJS
2.76
Sudet
1.01

VJS creates 173% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 11 away

creates per match

VJS
2.25
Sudet
0.82

allows per match

VJS
1.20
Sudet
3.27

finishing

VJS+0.00on par
Sudet+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VJS ↓

Sudet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

VJS or draw
89%
VJS or Sudet
85%
Draw or Sudet
27%

Winning margin

VJS wins by 2+
52%
Sudet wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

VJS 1+ goals
94%
VJS 2+ goals
76%
VJS 3+ goals
51%
Sudet 1+ goals
64%
Sudet 2+ goals
27%
Sudet 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

VJS (draw refunded)
87%
Sudet (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VJS at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Sudet away — creates 0.82, concedes 3.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VJS attack 2.25 + Sudet defence 3.27 → ÷2 → 2.76

Sudet attack 0.82 + VJS defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

VJS scores more
73%
level
15%
Sudet scores more
11%

VJS at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "VJS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: VJS 2–3 Sudet

Sudet beat VJS 3-2 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion (Vantaa).