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Sudet vs VJS — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

Sudet
Sudet
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
VJS
VJS
7/7/2019Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Round 11Kouvolan keskusurheilukenttä (Kouvola)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sudet21%
×Draw19%
VJS60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sudet
1.36
VJS
2.40

VJS creates 76% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 20 away

creates per match

Sudet
0.82
VJS
1.80

allows per match

Sudet
3.00
VJS
1.90

finishing

Sudet+0.00on par
VJS+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudet ↓

VJS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sudet or draw
40%
Sudet or VJS
81%
Draw or VJS
79%

Winning margin

Sudet wins by 2+
9%
VJS wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Sudet 1+ goals
74%
Sudet 2+ goals
39%
Sudet 3+ goals
16%
VJS 1+ goals
91%
VJS 2+ goals
69%
VJS 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Sudet (draw refunded)
26%
VJS (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudet at home — creates 0.82, concedes 3.00 · 11 matches

VJS away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudet attack 0.82 + VJS defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.36

VJS attack 1.80 + Sudet defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sudet scores more
21%
level
19%
VJS scores more
60%

VJS at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "VJS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sudet vs VJS

Sudet beat VJS 4-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on July 7, 2019.

The match was played at Kouvolan keskusurheilukenttä (Kouvola).