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VJS vs PEPO — Suomen Cup 2018

VJS
VJS
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
PEPO
PEPO
6/1/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 5th RoundMyyrmäen jalkapallostadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

VJS26%
×Draw19%
PEPO54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VJS
1.70
PEPO
2.48

PEPO creates 46% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

VJS
1.73
PEPO
3.42

allows per match

VJS
1.55
PEPO
1.67

finishing

VJS+0.00on par
PEPO+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VJS ↓

PEPO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

VJS or draw
46%
VJS or PEPO
81%
Draw or PEPO
74%

Winning margin

VJS wins by 2+
12%
PEPO wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

VJS 1+ goals
82%
VJS 2+ goals
51%
VJS 3+ goals
24%
PEPO 1+ goals
92%
PEPO 2+ goals
70%
PEPO 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

VJS (draw refunded)
33%
PEPO (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VJS at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

PEPO away — creates 3.42, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VJS attack 1.73 + PEPO defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.70

PEPO attack 3.42 + VJS defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

VJS scores more
26%
level
19%
PEPO scores more
54%

PEPO at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "PEPO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

VJS 3 – 2 PEPO

VJS beat PEPO 3-2 in Suomen Cup on June 1, 2023.

The match was played at Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion in Vantaa.