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VJS vs PEPO — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2026

VJS
VJS
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
PEPO
PEPO
5/25/2019Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Round 4Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion (Vantaa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

VJS51%
×Draw22%
PEPO27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VJS
2.00
PEPO
1.42

VJS creates 41% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 68 away

creates per match

VJS
2.25
PEPO
1.65

allows per match

VJS
1.20
PEPO
1.75

finishing

VJS+0.00on par
PEPO+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VJS ↓

PEPO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

VJS or draw
73%
VJS or PEPO
78%
Draw or PEPO
49%

Winning margin

VJS wins by 2+
29%
PEPO wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

VJS 1+ goals
86%
VJS 2+ goals
59%
VJS 3+ goals
32%
PEPO 1+ goals
76%
PEPO 2+ goals
41%
PEPO 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

VJS (draw refunded)
65%
PEPO (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VJS at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

PEPO away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.75 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VJS attack 2.25 + PEPO defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.00

PEPO attack 1.65 + VJS defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

VJS scores more
51%
level
22%
PEPO scores more
27%

VJS at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "VJS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: VJS 2–3 PEPO

PEPO beat VJS 3-2 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on May 25, 2019.

The match was played at Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion (Vantaa).