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Vjosa vs Ulpiana — Cup 2019

Vjosa
Vjosaadvanced
FT
1 – 0
Ulpiana
Ulpiana
11/17/2022CupCup · Round of 32Stadiumi Shtime

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vjosa62%
×Draw21%
Ulpiana16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vjosa
1.96
Ulpiana
0.88

Vjosa creates 123% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Vjosa
1.25
Ulpiana
0.00

allows per match

Vjosa
1.75
Ulpiana
2.67

finishing

Vjosa+0.00on par
Ulpiana+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vjosa ↓

Ulpiana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vjosa or draw
84%
Vjosa or Ulpiana
79%
Draw or Ulpiana
38%

Winning margin

Vjosa wins by 2+
38%
Ulpiana wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vjosa 1+ goals
86%
Vjosa 2+ goals
58%
Vjosa 3+ goals
31%
Ulpiana 1+ goals
59%
Ulpiana 2+ goals
22%
Ulpiana 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vjosa (draw refunded)
79%
Ulpiana (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vjosa at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Ulpiana away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vjosa attack 1.25 + Ulpiana defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.96

Ulpiana attack 0.00 + Vjosa defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Vjosa scores more
62%
level
21%
Ulpiana scores more
16%

Vjosa at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Vjosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Vjosa 1–0 Ulpiana

Vjosa beat Ulpiana 1-0 in Cup on November 17, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Shtime in Shtime.