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Ulpiana vs Vjosa — Cup 2019

Ulpiana
Ulpiana
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Vjosa
Vjosaadvanced
12/7/2023CupCup · Round of 32Stadiumi Sami Kelmendi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ulpiana73%
×Draw16%
Vjosa10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulpiana
2.50
Vjosa
0.83

Ulpiana creates 201% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Ulpiana
2.00
Vjosa
1.00

allows per match

Ulpiana
0.67
Vjosa
3.00

finishing

Ulpiana+0.00on par
Vjosa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulpiana ↓

Vjosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Ulpiana or draw
90%
Ulpiana or Vjosa
84%
Draw or Vjosa
27%

Winning margin

Ulpiana wins by 2+
51%
Vjosa wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ulpiana 1+ goals
92%
Ulpiana 2+ goals
71%
Ulpiana 3+ goals
45%
Vjosa 1+ goals
56%
Vjosa 2+ goals
20%
Vjosa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ulpiana (draw refunded)
87%
Vjosa (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulpiana at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Vjosa away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulpiana attack 2.00 + Vjosa defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Vjosa attack 1.00 + Ulpiana defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Ulpiana scores more
73%
level
16%
Vjosa scores more
10%

Ulpiana at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Ulpiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ulpiana vs Vjosa

Vjosa beat Ulpiana 2-1 in Cup on December 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Sami Kelmendi in Lipjan.