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Vizela vs Rio Ave — Primeira Liga 2018

Vizela
Vizela
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
4/27/2024Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 31Estádio Do Vizela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Vizela38%
×Draw27%
Rio Ave35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vizela
1.26
Rio Ave
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 120 away

creates per match

Vizela
1.08
Rio Ave
1.01

allows per match

Vizela
1.42
Rio Ave
1.44

finishing

Vizela+0.00on par
Rio Ave+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vizela ↓

Rio Ave →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vizela or draw
65%
Vizela or Rio Ave
73%
Draw or Rio Ave
62%

Winning margin

Vizela wins by 2+
16%
Rio Ave wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Vizela 1+ goals
72%
Vizela 2+ goals
36%
Vizela 3+ goals
13%
Rio Ave 1+ goals
70%
Rio Ave 2+ goals
34%
Rio Ave 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vizela (draw refunded)
52%
Rio Ave (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vizela at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

Rio Ave away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.44 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vizela attack 1.08 + Rio Ave defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.26

Rio Ave attack 1.01 + Vizela defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vizela scores more
38%
level
27%
Rio Ave scores more
35%

Vizela at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vizela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Vizela 1–1 Rio Ave

Vizela and Rio Ave drew 1-1 in Primeira Liga on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Do Vizela in Caldas de Vizela.