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Rio Ave vs Vizela — Primeira Liga 2018

Rio Ave
Rio Ave
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vizela
Vizela
8/6/2022Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 1Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Rio Ave45%
×Draw25%
Vizela29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Ave
1.52
Vizela
1.17

Rio Ave creates 30% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 52 away

creates per match

Rio Ave
1.25
Vizela
1.02

allows per match

Rio Ave
1.32
Vizela
1.79

finishing

Rio Ave+0.00on par
Vizela+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Ave ↓

Vizela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rio Ave or draw
71%
Rio Ave or Vizela
75%
Draw or Vizela
55%

Winning margin

Rio Ave wins by 2+
23%
Vizela wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rio Ave 1+ goals
78%
Rio Ave 2+ goals
45%
Rio Ave 3+ goals
20%
Vizela 1+ goals
69%
Vizela 2+ goals
33%
Vizela 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rio Ave (draw refunded)
61%
Vizela (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Ave at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.32 · 120 matches

Vizela away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Ave attack 1.25 + Vizela defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.52

Vizela attack 1.02 + Rio Ave defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rio Ave scores more
45%
level
25%
Vizela scores more
29%

Rio Ave at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rio Ave will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Rio Ave 0–1 Vizela

Vizela beat Rio Ave 1-0 in Primeira Liga on August 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube in Vila do Conde.