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Vizela vs Lusitânia Lourosa — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Vizela
Vizela
FT
1 – 3
Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa
8/2/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vizela19%
×Draw18%
Lusitânia Lourosa62%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vizela
1.33
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.50

Lusitânia Lourosa creates 88% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Vizela
1.33
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00

allows per match

Vizela
3.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.33

finishing

Vizela+0.00on par
Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vizela ↓

Lusitânia Lourosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Vizela or draw
38%
Vizela or Lusitânia Lourosa
82%
Draw or Lusitânia Lourosa
81%

Winning margin

Vizela wins by 2+
8%
Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Vizela 1+ goals
74%
Vizela 2+ goals
38%
Vizela 3+ goals
15%
Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals
92%
Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals
71%
Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Vizela (draw refunded)
23%
Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vizela at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Lusitânia Lourosa away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vizela attack 1.33 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 2.00 + Vizela defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Vizela scores more
19%
level
18%
Lusitânia Lourosa scores more
62%

Lusitânia Lourosa at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Lusitânia Lourosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Vizela 1–3 Lusitânia Lourosa

Lusitânia Lourosa beat Vizela 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 2, 2025.