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Lusitânia Lourosa vs Vizela — Taça de Portugal 2018

Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa
AET
4 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Vizela
Vizela
9/22/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio do Lusitânia FC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lusitânia Lourosa50%
×Draw23%
Vizela27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lusitânia Lourosa
1.78
Vizela
1.25

Lusitânia Lourosa creates 42% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Lusitânia Lourosa
3.00
Vizela
1.71

allows per match

Lusitânia Lourosa
0.80
Vizela
0.57

finishing

Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par
Vizela+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitânia Lourosa ↓

Vizela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lusitânia Lourosa or draw
73%
Lusitânia Lourosa or Vizela
77%
Draw or Vizela
50%

Winning margin

Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+
27%
Vizela wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals
83%
Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals
53%
Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals
26%
Vizela 1+ goals
71%
Vizela 2+ goals
36%
Vizela 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)
65%
Vizela (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitânia Lourosa at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Vizela away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 3.00 + Vizela defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.78

Vizela attack 1.71 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lusitânia Lourosa scores more
50%
level
23%
Vizela scores more
27%

Lusitânia Lourosa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lusitânia Lourosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lusitânia Lourosa vs Vizela

Lusitânia Lourosa beat Vizela 4-3 in Taça de Portugal on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio do Lusitânia FC in Lourosa.