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Vizela vs Feirense — Segunda Liga 2018

Vizela
Vizela
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Feirense
Feirense
Raphael Guzzo 23'
João Tavares 45+2'
5/2/2021Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 31Estádio Do Vizela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Vizela45%
×Draw27%
Feirense28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vizela
1.37
Feirense
1.03

Vizela creates 33% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 111 away

creates per match

Vizela
1.54
Feirense
1.08

allows per match

Vizela
0.98
Feirense
1.20

finishing

Vizela+0.00on par
Feirense+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vizela ↓

Feirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vizela or draw
72%
Vizela or Feirense
73%
Draw or Feirense
55%

Winning margin

Vizela wins by 2+
21%
Feirense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vizela 1+ goals
75%
Vizela 2+ goals
40%
Vizela 3+ goals
16%
Feirense 1+ goals
64%
Feirense 2+ goals
28%
Feirense 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vizela (draw refunded)
61%
Feirense (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vizela at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.98 · 52 matches

Feirense away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.20 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vizela attack 1.54 + Feirense defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.37

Feirense attack 1.08 + Vizela defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vizela scores more
45%
level
27%
Feirense scores more
28%

Vizela at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vizela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
Raphael Guzzo
36'
Raphael Guzzo
37'
Feliz Vaz
40'
Kiki
45+2'
João Tavares
48'
Tavinho
53'
F. Cann← Tavinho
57'
Francis Cann
62'
Fábio Espinho
65'
Fábio Espinho
65'
Fábio Espinho
69'
Edson Farias← Feliz Vaz
77'
Mica← João Tavares
82'
Koffi Kouao
82'
Fabrício Simões← Platiny
84'
R. Ofori← K. Kouao
90+1'
André Soares← Kiko Bondoso
90'
Ericson← Raphael Guzzo

Possession

46%Vizela

Shots

10Vizela

Statistics

VizelaFeirense
Overview
46%Possession54%
10Total Shots9
7Corners2
18Fouls17
Shots
10Total Shots9
2On Target4
8Off Target5
Passing
46%Possession54%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
18Fouls17
4Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards1
1Offsides3

Segunda Liga: Vizela 1–1 Feirense

Vizela and Feirense drew 1-1 in Segunda Liga on May 2, 2021.

Goals: Raphael Guzzo (23'), João Tavares (45+2').

Feirense controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estádio Do Vizela in Caldas de Vizela.