Feirense 1–0 Vizela: Result & Stats | Segunda Liga

Feirense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vizela

E. Fernandes 33'

4/12/2026

Segunda Liga · Round 29Estadio Marcolino de Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Feirense37%

×Draw28%

Vizela36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FeirenseExpected goals in this matchVizela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.17

Feirense

1.19

Vizela

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 53 away

1.31

creates per match

1.34

0.99

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Feirense

1.31

Vizela

1.34

allows per match

Feirense

0.99

Vizela

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Feirense+0.00on par

Vizela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feirense ↓

Vizela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Feirense or draw

64%

Feirense or Vizela

72%

Draw or Vizela

63%

Winning margin

Feirense wins by 2+

15%

Vizela wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Feirense 1+ goals

70%

Feirense 2+ goals

33%

Feirense 3+ goals

12%

Vizela 1+ goals

69%

Vizela 2+ goals

33%

Vizela 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Feirense (draw refunded)

51%

Vizela (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feirense at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Vizela away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.06 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feirense attack 1.31 + Vizela defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.19

Vizela attack 1.34 + Feirense defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Feirense scores more

37%

level

28%

Vizela scores more

36%

Feirense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Feirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

22'

27'

31'

33'

E. Fernandes↳ Ze Ricardo

46'

Y. Kitala← J. Sampaio

59'

Desmond Nketia

60'

D. Loppy← A. Busnic

67'

Tiago Ribeiro

70'

Gui Meira← Jojo

70'

L. dos Santos← T. Ribeiro

85'

A. Bastunov← Moha Moukhliss

86'

B. Silva←

86'

P. H. de Oliveira da Silva← S. Popoola

89'

André Lopes

90+6'

Pedro Mendes

90+6'

Yann Kitala

Statistics

FeirenseVizela

Discipline

5Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Feirense vs Vizela

Feirense beat Vizela 1-0 in Segunda Liga on April 12, 2026.

Goals: E. Fernandes (33').

The match was played at Estadio Marcolino de Castro in Santa Maria da Feira.

Feirense vs Vizela — Segunda Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Match Recap: Feirense vs Vizela