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Vizela vs Academica — Segunda Liga 2018

Vizela
Vizela
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Academica
Academica
Cassiano 16' (pen)
Leandro Sanca 90+3'
Bruno Teles 84'
M. Bouldini 71'
10/24/2020Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 7Estádio Do Vizela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Vizela46%
×Draw27%
Academica27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vizela
1.42
Academica
1.02

Vizela creates 39% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 66 away

creates per match

Vizela
1.55
Academica
1.05

allows per match

Vizela
0.98
Academica
1.29

finishing

Vizela+0.00on par
Academica+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vizela ↓

Academica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vizela or draw
73%
Vizela or Academica
73%
Draw or Academica
54%

Winning margin

Vizela wins by 2+
22%
Academica wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vizela 1+ goals
76%
Vizela 2+ goals
41%
Vizela 3+ goals
17%
Academica 1+ goals
64%
Academica 2+ goals
27%
Academica 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vizela (draw refunded)
63%
Academica (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vizela at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.98 · 53 matches

Academica away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.29 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vizela attack 1.55 + Academica defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.42

Academica attack 1.05 + Vizela defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vizela scores more
46%
level
27%
Academica scores more
27%

Vizela at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vizela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
CassianoPenalty
21'
Mohamed Aidara
32'
Hugues Evrard
57'
Ericson← H. Zagbayou
65'
F. Cardozo← F. Cann
65'
Tavinho← Kiko Bondoso
67'
Filipe Chaby← Fabinho
70'
Matheus Costa
71'
M. Bouldini
73'
Koffi Kouao
82'
Tavinho
83'
R. Ofori← Kiki Afonso
83'
Diogo Ribeiro← Cassiano
84'
Bruno Teles
86'
Leandro Sanca← Guima
86'
Mimito Biai← João Mário
88'
Fabiano
89'
Fábio Vianna← Fabiano
90'
Tavinho
90'
Tavinho
90+3'
Leandro Sanca

Possession

45%Vizela

Shots

3Vizela

Statistics

VizelaAcademica
Overview
45%Possession55%
3Total Shots11
4Corners5
18Fouls12
Shots
3Total Shots11
1On Target5
2Off Target6
Passing
45%Possession55%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
18Fouls12
4Yellow Cards1
2Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Vizela vs Academica

Academica beat Vizela 3-1 in Segunda Liga on October 24, 2020.

Goals: Cassiano (16' pen), M. Bouldini (71'), Bruno Teles (84'), Leandro Sanca (90+3').

Academica controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 3.

The match was played at Estádio Do Vizela in Caldas de Vizela.