Academica 0–1 Vizela: Result & Stats | Segunda Liga

Academica

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vizela

Felipe Abreu 78'

9/4/2016

Segunda Liga · Round 9Estádio EFAPEL (Coimbra)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Academica34%

×Draw28%

Vizela38%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AcademicaExpected goals in this matchVizela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.24

Academica

1.15

Vizela

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 53 away

1.23

creates per match

1.34

1.14

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Academica

1.23

Vizela

1.34

allows per match

Academica

1.14

Vizela

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academica+0.00on par

Vizela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academica ↓

Vizela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Academica or draw

62%

Academica or Vizela

72%

Draw or Vizela

66%

Winning margin

Academica wins by 2+

14%

Vizela wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Academica 1+ goals

68%

Academica 2+ goals

32%

Academica 3+ goals

11%

Vizela 1+ goals

71%

Vizela 2+ goals

35%

Vizela 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Academica (draw refunded)

47%

Vizela (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academica at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.14 · 64 matches

Vizela away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.06 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academica attack 1.23 + Vizela defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.15

Vizela attack 1.34 + Academica defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Academica scores more

34%

level

28%

Vizela scores more

38%

Vizela at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vizela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

E. Ohemeng← Alexandre Alfaiate

66'

Pedro Nuno← Marinho

78'

Felipe Abreu

81'

Tozé Marreco← Jimmy

86'

Miguel Oliveira← Mário Mendonça

90+1'

Diogo Lamelas← Felipe Abreu

Academica

Vizela

13

6

30

33

4

28

10

21

19

20

▼

Mendonça

7

⚽

▼

87

17

13

21

▼

3

65

22

88

▼

Jimmy

7

▼

Marinho

10

Miguel

43

Plange

Manager: Costinha

46'▲E. Ohemeng←▼Alexandre Alfaiate

66'▲Pedro Nuno←▼Marinho

81'▲Tozé Marreco←▼Jimmy

Academica substitutes

19Ohemeng27Nuno90Marreco2Tom6Makonda44Yuri71Costa

Manager: Ricardo Soares

86'▲Miguel Oliveira←▼Mário Mendonça

90+1'▲Diogo Lamelas←▼Felipe Abreu

Vizela substitutes

26Oliveira17Lamelas5Porto9Martins66Dani70Boakye84Ribeiro