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Vizela U19 vs Moreirense U19 — League #1041 2026

Vizela U19
Vizela U19
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Moreirense U19
Moreirense U19
9/27/2025League #1041League #1041 · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vizela U1923%
×Draw21%
Moreirense U1957%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vizela U19
1.28
Moreirense U19
2.13

Moreirense U19 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 4 away

creates per match

Vizela U19
1.31
Moreirense U19
1.75

allows per match

Vizela U19
2.50
Moreirense U19
1.25

finishing

Vizela U19+0.00on par
Moreirense U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vizela U19 ↓

Moreirense U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Vizela U19 or draw
43%
Vizela U19 or Moreirense U19
79%
Draw or Moreirense U19
77%

Winning margin

Vizela U19 wins by 2+
9%
Moreirense U19 wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Vizela U19 1+ goals
72%
Vizela U19 2+ goals
37%
Vizela U19 3+ goals
14%
Moreirense U19 1+ goals
88%
Moreirense U19 2+ goals
63%
Moreirense U19 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Vizela U19 (draw refunded)
29%
Moreirense U19 (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vizela U19 at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.50 · 16 matches

Moreirense U19 away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vizela U19 attack 1.31 + Moreirense U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.28

Moreirense U19 attack 1.75 + Vizela U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vizela U19 scores more
23%
level
21%
Moreirense U19 scores more
57%

Moreirense U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Moreirense U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vizela U19 vs Moreirense U19

Moreirense U19 beat Vizela U19 3-0 in League #1041 on September 27, 2025.