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Moreirense U19 vs Vizela U19 — League #1041 2026

Moreirense U19
Moreirense U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Vizela U19
Vizela U19
11/8/2025League #1041League #1041 · Round 17Campo no. 2 do Moreirense Futebol Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Moreirense U1946%
×Draw24%
Vizela U1930%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moreirense U19
1.69
Vizela U19
1.31

Moreirense U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 16 away

creates per match

Moreirense U19
1.25
Vizela U19
1.38

allows per match

Moreirense U19
1.25
Vizela U19
2.13

finishing

Moreirense U19+0.00on par
Vizela U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreirense U19 ↓

Vizela U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Moreirense U19 or draw
70%
Moreirense U19 or Vizela U19
76%
Draw or Vizela U19
54%

Winning margin

Moreirense U19 wins by 2+
24%
Vizela U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Moreirense U19 1+ goals
82%
Moreirense U19 2+ goals
50%
Moreirense U19 3+ goals
24%
Vizela U19 1+ goals
73%
Vizela U19 2+ goals
38%
Vizela U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Moreirense U19 (draw refunded)
61%
Vizela U19 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreirense U19 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Vizela U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreirense U19 attack 1.25 + Vizela U19 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.69

Vizela U19 attack 1.38 + Moreirense U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Moreirense U19 scores more
46%
level
24%
Vizela U19 scores more
30%

Moreirense U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Moreirense U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #1041: Moreirense U19 0–2 Vizela U19

Vizela U19 beat Moreirense U19 2-0 in League #1041 on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Campo no. 2 do Moreirense Futebol Clube in Moreira de Cónegos.