Vizela U19 1–3 Famalicão U19: Result & Stats

Vizela U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Famalicão U19

11/11/2023

League #1041 · Round 13Campo Municipal de Santo Adrião Vizela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Vizela U1933%

×Draw23%

Famalicão U1944%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vizela U19Expected goals in this matchFamalicão U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.83

Vizela U19

1.57

Famalicão U19

1.83

Famalicão U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

1.31

creates per match

1.17

2.50

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Vizela U19

1.31

Famalicão U19

1.17

allows per match

Vizela U19

2.50

Famalicão U19

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vizela U19+0.00on par

Famalicão U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vizela U19 ↓

Famalicão U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Vizela U19 or draw

56%

Vizela U19 or Famalicão U19

77%

Draw or Famalicão U19

67%

Winning margin

Vizela U19 wins by 2+

16%

Famalicão U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Vizela U19 1+ goals

79%

Vizela U19 2+ goals

46%

Vizela U19 3+ goals

21%

Famalicão U19 1+ goals

84%

Famalicão U19 2+ goals

54%

Famalicão U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Vizela U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Famalicão U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vizela U19 at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.50 · 16 matches

Famalicão U19 away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vizela U19 attack 1.31 + Famalicão U19 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.57

Famalicão U19 attack 1.17 + Vizela U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vizela U19 scores more

33%

level

23%

Famalicão U19 scores more

44%

Famalicão U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Famalicão U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff