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Famalicão U19 vs Vizela U19 — League #1041 2026

Famalicão U19
Famalicão U19
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Vizela U19
Vizela U19
11/1/2025League #1041League #1041 · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Famalicão U1959%
×Draw20%
Vizela U1920%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Famalicão U19
2.15
Vizela U19
1.19

Famalicão U19 creates 81% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

creates per match

Famalicão U19
2.17
Vizela U19
1.38

allows per match

Famalicão U19
1.00
Vizela U19
2.13

finishing

Famalicão U19+0.00on par
Vizela U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Famalicão U19 ↓

Vizela U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Famalicão U19 or draw
80%
Famalicão U19 or Vizela U19
80%
Draw or Vizela U19
41%

Winning margin

Famalicão U19 wins by 2+
36%
Vizela U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Famalicão U19 1+ goals
88%
Famalicão U19 2+ goals
63%
Famalicão U19 3+ goals
36%
Vizela U19 1+ goals
70%
Vizela U19 2+ goals
33%
Vizela U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Famalicão U19 (draw refunded)
74%
Vizela U19 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Famalicão U19 at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Vizela U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Famalicão U19 attack 2.17 + Vizela U19 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.15

Vizela U19 attack 1.38 + Famalicão U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Famalicão U19 scores more
59%
level
20%
Vizela U19 scores more
20%

Famalicão U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Famalicão U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Famalicão U19 vs Vizela U19

Famalicão U19 and Vizela U19 drew 3-3 in League #1041 on November 1, 2025.