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Vittsjö W vs Djurgården W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Vittsjö W
Vittsjö W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Djurgården W
Djurgården W
J. Nyby 61'
O. Ulenius 68'
M. Larsson 51'
4/18/2025DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 4Vittsjo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Vittsjö W34%
×Draw25%
Djurgården W41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vittsjö W
1.36
Djurgården W
1.51

Djurgården W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Vittsjö W
1.17
Djurgården W
1.17

allows per match

Vittsjö W
1.85
Djurgården W
1.56

finishing

Vittsjö W+0.03on par
Djurgården W-0.17scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vittsjö W ↓

Djurgården W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vittsjö W or draw
59%
Vittsjö W or Djurgården W
75%
Draw or Djurgården W
66%

Winning margin

Vittsjö W wins by 2+
15%
Djurgården W wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Vittsjö W 1+ goals
74%
Vittsjö W 2+ goals
39%
Vittsjö W 3+ goals
16%
Djurgården W 1+ goals
78%
Djurgården W 2+ goals
44%
Djurgården W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Vittsjö W (draw refunded)
46%
Djurgården W (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vittsjö W at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.85 · 5 matches

Djurgården W away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.56 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vittsjö W attack 1.17 + Djurgården W defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.36

Djurgården W attack 1.17 + Vittsjö W defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vittsjö W scores more
34%
level
25%
Djurgården W scores more
41%

Djurgården W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Djurgården W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
M. LarssonDjurgården WDjurgården W · F
8.0

Match Events

51'
M. Larsson
61'
J. Nyby↳ J. Tunturi
63'
O. Ulenius← M. Larsson
63'
M. Staffansson← U. Watanabe
68'
O. Ulenius↳ P. Hammarlund
74'
H. Kollanen← H. Sjodahl
74'
M. Larsson← S. Rewucha
75'
E. Westlund← L. Duras
82'
A. Svensson← A. Lobanova
85'
A. Benediktsson← S. Ojanen
85'
S. Lynn← O. Wanglund
90'
S. Yekka← A. Jonasson

Possession

45%Vittsjö

Shots

19Vittsjö

Pass accuracy

47%Vittsjö

Statistics

VittsjöDjurgården
Overview
45%Possession55%
19Total Shots13
1.41Expected Goals (xG)1.89
6Corners2
9Fouls8
Shots
19Total Shots13
5On Target4
8Off Target4
5Blocked5
9Inside Box8
10Outside Box5
Passing
45%Possession55%
321Total Passes419
211Accurate Passes312
66%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls8
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Vittsjö W vs Djurgården W

Djurgården W beat Vittsjö W 2-1 in Damallsvenskan on April 18, 2025.

Goals: M. Larsson (51'), J. Nyby (61'), O. Ulenius (68').

Djurgården W controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 19.

The match was played at Vittsjo in Vittsjo.