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Vittsjö W vs Djurgården W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Vittsjö W
Vittsjö W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Djurgården W
Djurgården W
9/8/2024DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 18Vittsjö IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Vittsjö W36%
×Draw24%
Djurgården W40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vittsjö W
1.43
Djurgården W
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Vittsjö W
1.17
Djurgården W
1.21

allows per match

Vittsjö W
1.85
Djurgården W
1.69

finishing

Vittsjö W+0.03on par
Djurgården W-0.41scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vittsjö W ↓

Djurgården W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Vittsjö W or draw
60%
Vittsjö W or Djurgården W
76%
Draw or Djurgården W
64%

Winning margin

Vittsjö W wins by 2+
16%
Djurgården W wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Vittsjö W 1+ goals
76%
Vittsjö W 2+ goals
42%
Vittsjö W 3+ goals
17%
Djurgården W 1+ goals
78%
Djurgården W 2+ goals
45%
Djurgården W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Vittsjö W (draw refunded)
47%
Djurgården W (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vittsjö W at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.85 · 5 matches

Djurgården W away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.69 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vittsjö W attack 1.17 + Djurgården W defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.43

Djurgården W attack 1.21 + Vittsjö W defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vittsjö W scores more
36%
level
24%
Djurgården W scores more
40%

Djurgården W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Djurgården W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
E. HedDjurgården WDjurgården W · D
8.2

Match Events

34'
Sandra Lynn
62'
J. Nyby← O. Wänglund
72'
L. Duras← T. Almqvist
74'
Linda Sällström
74'
H. Kollanen← H. Ekengren
74'
L. Pechersky← L. Sällström
82'
L. Hvarfner← M. Staffansson
87'
C. Rubensson← T. Boychuk
87'
Z. Jönsson← M. Larsson
87'
E. Westlund← S. Johansson

Possession

43%Vittsjö

Shots

4Vittsjö

Pass accuracy

50%Vittsjö

Statistics

VittsjöDjurgården
Overview
43%Possession57%
4Total Shots10
0.09Expected Goals (xG)0.62
2Corners4
16Fouls15
Shots
4Total Shots10
0On Target3
1Off Target5
3Blocked2
2Inside Box4
2Outside Box6
Passing
43%Possession57%
323Total Passes434
251Accurate Passes342
78%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
16Fouls15
3Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
5Offsides3

Damallsvenskan: Vittsjö W 0–0 Djurgården W

Vittsjö W and Djurgården W drew 0-0 in Damallsvenskan on September 8, 2024.

Djurgården W controlled possession (57%) and registered 10 shots to 4.

The match was played at Vittsjö IP in Vittsjö.