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Vittoriosa Stars vs St. Andrews — League #392 2026

Vittoriosa Stars
Vittoriosa Stars
FT
0 – 1
St. Andrews
St. Andrews
1/31/2021League #392League #392 · Round 18MFA Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vittoriosa Stars42%
×Draw26%
St. Andrews32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vittoriosa Stars
1.41
St. Andrews
1.21

Vittoriosa Stars creates 17% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Vittoriosa Stars
1.25
St. Andrews
1.43

allows per match

Vittoriosa Stars
1.00
St. Andrews
1.57

finishing

Vittoriosa Stars+0.00on par
St. Andrews+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vittoriosa Stars ↓

St. Andrews →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vittoriosa Stars or draw
68%
Vittoriosa Stars or St. Andrews
74%
Draw or St. Andrews
58%

Winning margin

Vittoriosa Stars wins by 2+
20%
St. Andrews wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vittoriosa Stars 1+ goals
76%
Vittoriosa Stars 2+ goals
41%
Vittoriosa Stars 3+ goals
17%
St. Andrews 1+ goals
70%
St. Andrews 2+ goals
34%
St. Andrews 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vittoriosa Stars (draw refunded)
56%
St. Andrews (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vittoriosa Stars at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

St. Andrews away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vittoriosa Stars attack 1.25 + St. Andrews defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

St. Andrews attack 1.43 + Vittoriosa Stars defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vittoriosa Stars scores more
42%
level
26%
St. Andrews scores more
32%

Vittoriosa Stars at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vittoriosa Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vittoriosa Stars vs St. Andrews

St. Andrews beat Vittoriosa Stars 1-0 in League #392 on January 31, 2021.

The match was played at MFA Centenary Stadium in Ta'Qali.