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St. Andrews vs Vittoriosa Stars — FA Trophy 2020

St. Andrews
St. Andrewsadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vittoriosa Stars
Vittoriosa Stars
12/6/2025FA TrophyFA Trophy · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

St. Andrews70%
×Draw18%
Vittoriosa Stars12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Andrews
2.25
Vittoriosa Stars
0.79

St. Andrews creates 185% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

St. Andrews
1.00
Vittoriosa Stars
0.25

allows per match

St. Andrews
1.33
Vittoriosa Stars
3.50

finishing

St. Andrews+0.00on par
Vittoriosa Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Andrews ↓

Vittoriosa Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

St. Andrews or draw
88%
St. Andrews or Vittoriosa Stars
82%
Draw or Vittoriosa Stars
30%

Winning margin

St. Andrews wins by 2+
46%
Vittoriosa Stars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

St. Andrews 1+ goals
89%
St. Andrews 2+ goals
65%
St. Andrews 3+ goals
39%
Vittoriosa Stars 1+ goals
55%
Vittoriosa Stars 2+ goals
19%
Vittoriosa Stars 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

St. Andrews (draw refunded)
86%
Vittoriosa Stars (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Andrews at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Vittoriosa Stars away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Andrews attack 1.00 + Vittoriosa Stars defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Vittoriosa Stars attack 0.25 + St. Andrews defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

St. Andrews scores more
70%
level
18%
Vittoriosa Stars scores more
12%

St. Andrews at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "St. Andrews will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

St.
Vittoriosa
J. Borg
Manager: J. Borg
V. Carbonaro
Manager: V. Carbonaro

FA Trophy: St. Andrews 3–0 Vittoriosa Stars

St. Andrews beat Vittoriosa Stars 3-0 in FA Trophy on December 6, 2025.