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Vitosha Bistritsa vs Vereya Stara Zagora — First League 2018

Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
4/25/2019First LeagueFirst League · Relegation Round - 5Stadion Vitosha (Bistritsa (Bistrica))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vitosha Bistritsa62%
×Draw20%
Vereya Stara Zagora17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitosha Bistritsa
2.09
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.99

Vitosha Bistritsa creates 111% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 16 away

creates per match

Vitosha Bistritsa
0.93
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.19

allows per match

Vitosha Bistritsa
1.80
Vereya Stara Zagora
3.25

finishing

Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par
Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitosha Bistritsa ↓

Vereya Stara Zagora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Vitosha Bistritsa or draw
83%
Vitosha Bistritsa or Vereya Stara Zagora
80%
Draw or Vereya Stara Zagora
38%

Winning margin

Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
39%
Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
88%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
62%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
34%
Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
63%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
26%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
79%
Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitosha Bistritsa at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 30 matches

Vereya Stara Zagora away — creates 0.19, concedes 3.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 0.93 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.09

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.19 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
62%
level
20%
Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
17%

Vitosha Bistritsa at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Vitosha Bistritsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Vitosha Bistritsa 2–0 Vereya Stara Zagora

Vitosha Bistritsa beat Vereya Stara Zagora 2-0 in First League on April 25, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Vitosha (Bistritsa (Bistrica)).