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Vereya Stara Zagora vs Vitosha Bistritsa — First League 2018

Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
8/20/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 5Trace Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vereya Stara Zagora37%
×Draw29%
Vitosha Bistritsa34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vereya Stara Zagora
1.16
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 31 away

creates per match

Vereya Stara Zagora
0.63
Vitosha Bistritsa
0.42

allows per match

Vereya Stara Zagora
1.81
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.68

finishing

Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par
Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vereya Stara Zagora ↓

Vitosha Bistritsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vereya Stara Zagora or draw
66%
Vereya Stara Zagora or Vitosha Bistritsa
71%
Draw or Vitosha Bistritsa
63%

Winning margin

Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
15%
Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
69%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
32%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
11%
Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
67%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
30%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
52%
Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vereya Stara Zagora at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Vitosha Bistritsa away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.63 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.16

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 0.42 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
37%
level
29%
Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
34%

Vereya Stara Zagora at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Vereya Stara Zagora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Vereya Stara Zagora 0–1 Vitosha Bistritsa

Vitosha Bistritsa beat Vereya Stara Zagora 1-0 in First League on August 20, 2018.

The match was played at Trace Arena in Stara Zagora.