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Vitosha Bistritsa vs Tsarsko Selo — First League 2018

Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
6/27/2020First LeagueFirst League · Relegation Round - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Vitosha Bistritsa33%
×Draw28%
Tsarsko Selo39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitosha Bistritsa
1.14
Tsarsko Selo
1.25

Tsarsko Selo creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 48 away

creates per match

Vitosha Bistritsa
0.93
Tsarsko Selo
0.69

allows per match

Vitosha Bistritsa
1.80
Tsarsko Selo
1.35

finishing

Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par
Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitosha Bistritsa ↓

Tsarsko Selo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vitosha Bistritsa or draw
61%
Vitosha Bistritsa or Tsarsko Selo
72%
Draw or Tsarsko Selo
67%

Winning margin

Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
14%
Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
68%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
32%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
11%
Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
71%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
36%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
46%
Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitosha Bistritsa at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 30 matches

Tsarsko Selo away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.35 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 0.93 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.14

Tsarsko Selo attack 0.69 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
33%
level
28%
Tsarsko Selo scores more
39%

Tsarsko Selo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitosha Bistritsa vs Tsarsko Selo

Tsarsko Selo beat Vitosha Bistritsa 1-0 in First League on June 27, 2020.