Tsarsko Selo 1–0 Vitosha Bistritsa: Result & Stats

Tsarsko Selo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vitosha Bistritsa

A. Georgiev 70'

2/14/2020

First League · Round 21Tsarsko selo Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Tsarsko Selo49%

×Draw28%

Vitosha Bistritsa23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tsarsko SeloExpected goals in this matchVitosha Bistritsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.85

Tsarsko Selo

1.37

Vitosha Bistritsa

0.85

Tsarsko Selo creates 61% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 31 away

1.06

creates per match

0.42

1.29

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo

1.06

Vitosha Bistritsa

0.42

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo

1.29

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

Vitosha Bistritsa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw

77%

Tsarsko Selo or Vitosha Bistritsa

72%

Draw or Vitosha Bistritsa

51%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+

24%

Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals

75%

Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals

40%

Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals

16%

Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals

57%

Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals

21%

Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)

68%

Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Vitosha Bistritsa away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 1.06 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.37

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 0.42 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more

49%

level

28%

Vitosha Bistritsa scores more

23%

Tsarsko Selo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

R. Gionov

23'

D. Kutev

46'

G. Sarmov← D. Kutev

70'

A. Georgiev← E. Bahtić

70'

A. Georgiev

72'

I. Dimitrov← K. Kochilov

75'

A. Kabov← S. Malamov

84'

I. Ivanov← L. Marengo

87'

89'

90'

90+2'

90+2'

I. Dzhamov← D. Bahamboula

Tsarsko

Vitosha

1

25

77

22

5

23

14

6

▼

Malamov

7

▼

Kochilov

80

Kotev

11

▼

30

3

4

21

11

▼

Bahtić

17

Daskalov

22

▼

Bahamboul

7

▼

10

8

93

Manager: N. Spasov

70'▲A. Georgiev←▼E. Bahtić

84'▲I. Ivanov←▼L. Marengo

90+2'▲I. Dzhamov←▼D. Bahamboula

Tsarsko Selo substitutes

6Georgiev20Ivanov26Dzhamov9Ushagelov91Budinov89Mikov12Dimitrov

Manager: A. Bukarev

46'▲G. Sarmov←▼D. Kutev

72'▲I. Dimitrov←▼K. Kochilov

75'▲A. Kabov←▼S. Malamov

Vitosha Bistritsa substitutes

8Sarmov9Dimitrov93Kabov4Uzunov10Amzin18Popov33Katsarev

Match Recap: Tsarsko Selo vs Vitosha Bistritsa

Tsarsko Selo beat Vitosha Bistritsa 1-0 in First League on February 14, 2020.

Goals: A. Georgiev (70').

The match was played at Tsarsko selo Complex in Sofia.

Tsarsko Selo vs Vitosha Bistritsa — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tsarsko Selo vs Vitosha Bistritsa