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Vitosha Bistritsa vs Slavia Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
FT
0 – 3
Slavia Sofia II
Slavia Sofia II
4/25/2026Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 29Bistritsa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Vitosha Bistritsa54%
×Draw22%
Slavia Sofia II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitosha Bistritsa
1.90
Slavia Sofia II
1.19

Vitosha Bistritsa creates 60% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 70 away

creates per match

Vitosha Bistritsa
1.80
Slavia Sofia II
1.33

allows per match

Vitosha Bistritsa
1.04
Slavia Sofia II
1.99

finishing

Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par
Slavia Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitosha Bistritsa ↓

Slavia Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Vitosha Bistritsa or draw
76%
Vitosha Bistritsa or Slavia Sofia II
78%
Draw or Slavia Sofia II
46%

Winning margin

Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
31%
Slavia Sofia II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
85%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
56%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
29%
Slavia Sofia II 1+ goals
70%
Slavia Sofia II 2+ goals
33%
Slavia Sofia II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
69%
Slavia Sofia II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitosha Bistritsa at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.04 · 70 matches

Slavia Sofia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.99 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.80 + Slavia Sofia II defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.90

Slavia Sofia II attack 1.33 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
54%
level
22%
Slavia Sofia II scores more
24%

Vitosha Bistritsa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vitosha Bistritsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Vitosha Bistritsa 0–3 Slavia Sofia II

Slavia Sofia II beat Vitosha Bistritsa 3-0 in Third League - Southwest on April 25, 2026.

The match was played at Bistritsa Stadium in Sofia.