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Slavia Sofia II vs Vitosha Bistritsa — Third League - Southwest 2018

Slavia Sofia II
Slavia Sofia II
FT
3 – 1
Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
10/5/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 12Slavija pomoshten teren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Slavia Sofia II44%
×Draw25%
Vitosha Bistritsa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Sofia II
1.56
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.28

Slavia Sofia II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 69 away

creates per match

Slavia Sofia II
1.94
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.13

allows per match

Slavia Sofia II
1.43
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.19

finishing

Slavia Sofia II+0.00on par
Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Sofia II ↓

Vitosha Bistritsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Slavia Sofia II or draw
69%
Slavia Sofia II or Vitosha Bistritsa
75%
Draw or Vitosha Bistritsa
56%

Winning margin

Slavia Sofia II wins by 2+
22%
Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Slavia Sofia II 1+ goals
79%
Slavia Sofia II 2+ goals
46%
Slavia Sofia II 3+ goals
21%
Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
72%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
37%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Slavia Sofia II (draw refunded)
58%
Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Sofia II at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.43 · 69 matches

Vitosha Bistritsa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Sofia II attack 1.94 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.56

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.13 + Slavia Sofia II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Slavia Sofia II scores more
44%
level
25%
Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
31%

Slavia Sofia II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Slavia Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Slavia Sofia II 3–1 Vitosha Bistritsa

Slavia Sofia II beat Vitosha Bistritsa 3-1 in Third League - Southwest on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Slavija pomoshten teren in Sofia.