Vitosha Bistritsa 0–2 Rilski Sportist

Vitosha Bistritsa

FT

0 – 2

Rilski Sportist

8/3/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 1Stadion Letishte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Vitosha Bistritsa54%

×Draw23%

Rilski Sportist23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vitosha BistritsaExpected goals in this matchRilski Sportist

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.06

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.77

Rilski Sportist

1.06

Vitosha Bistritsa creates 67% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 129 away

1.80

creates per match

1.07

1.04

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.80

Rilski Sportist

1.07

allows per match

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.04

Rilski Sportist

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Rilski Sportist+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitosha Bistritsa ↓

Rilski Sportist →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Vitosha Bistritsa or draw

77%

Vitosha Bistritsa or Rilski Sportist

77%

Draw or Rilski Sportist

46%

Winning margin

Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+

30%

Rilski Sportist wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals

83%

Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals

53%

Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals

26%

Rilski Sportist 1+ goals

65%

Rilski Sportist 2+ goals

29%

Rilski Sportist 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)

70%

Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitosha Bistritsa at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.04 · 70 matches

Rilski Sportist away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.80 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.77

Rilski Sportist attack 1.07 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vitosha Bistritsa scores more

54%

level

23%

Rilski Sportist scores more

23%

Vitosha Bistritsa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vitosha Bistritsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff