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Rilski Sportist vs Vitosha Bistritsa — Third League - Southwest 2018

Rilski Sportist
Rilski Sportist
FT
0 – 4
Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
2/25/2025Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 20Stadion Vassil Levski Dolna Banya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Rilski Sportist45%
×Draw26%
Vitosha Bistritsa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rilski Sportist
1.46
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.11

Rilski Sportist creates 32% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 69 away

creates per match

Rilski Sportist
1.72
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.13

allows per match

Rilski Sportist
1.10
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.19

finishing

Rilski Sportist+0.00on par
Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rilski Sportist ↓

Vitosha Bistritsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rilski Sportist or draw
71%
Rilski Sportist or Vitosha Bistritsa
74%
Draw or Vitosha Bistritsa
55%

Winning margin

Rilski Sportist wins by 2+
22%
Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rilski Sportist 1+ goals
77%
Rilski Sportist 2+ goals
43%
Rilski Sportist 3+ goals
18%
Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
67%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
30%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)
61%
Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rilski Sportist at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.10 · 132 matches

Vitosha Bistritsa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rilski Sportist attack 1.72 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.46

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.13 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rilski Sportist scores more
45%
level
26%
Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
29%

Rilski Sportist at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rilski Sportist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Rilski Sportist 0–4 Vitosha Bistritsa

Vitosha Bistritsa beat Rilski Sportist 4-0 in Third League - Southwest on February 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Vassil Levski Dolna Banya in Dolna Banya.