Vitosha Bistritsa 1–2 Pirin Razlog: Result & Stats

Vitosha Bistritsa

FT

1 – 2

Pirin Razlog

9/28/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 11Stadion Letishte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Vitosha Bistritsa53%

×Draw24%

Pirin Razlog23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vitosha BistritsaExpected goals in this matchPirin Razlog

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.01

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.69

Pirin Razlog

1.01

Vitosha Bistritsa creates 67% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 131 away

1.80

creates per match

0.98

1.04

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.80

Pirin Razlog

0.98

allows per match

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.04

Pirin Razlog

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Pirin Razlog+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitosha Bistritsa ↓

Pirin Razlog →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Vitosha Bistritsa or draw

77%

Vitosha Bistritsa or Pirin Razlog

76%

Draw or Pirin Razlog

47%

Winning margin

Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+

29%

Pirin Razlog wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals

82%

Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals

50%

Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals

24%

Pirin Razlog 1+ goals

64%

Pirin Razlog 2+ goals

27%

Pirin Razlog 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)

70%

Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitosha Bistritsa at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.04 · 70 matches

Pirin Razlog away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.80 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.69

Pirin Razlog attack 0.98 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vitosha Bistritsa scores more

53%

level

24%

Pirin Razlog scores more

23%

Vitosha Bistritsa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vitosha Bistritsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff