Pirin Razlog 1–2 Vitosha Bistritsa: Result & Stats

Pirin Razlog

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Vitosha Bistritsa

4/23/2025

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 30Stadion Septemvri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Pirin Razlog40%

×Draw28%

Vitosha Bistritsa33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pirin RazlogExpected goals in this matchVitosha Bistritsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.12

Pirin Razlog

1.27

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.12

Pirin Razlog creates 13% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 69 away

1.35

creates per match

1.13

1.11

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Pirin Razlog

1.35

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.13

allows per match

Pirin Razlog

1.11

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pirin Razlog+0.00on par

Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Razlog ↓

Vitosha Bistritsa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Pirin Razlog or draw

67%

Pirin Razlog or Vitosha Bistritsa

72%

Draw or Vitosha Bistritsa

60%

Winning margin

Pirin Razlog wins by 2+

18%

Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pirin Razlog 1+ goals

72%

Pirin Razlog 2+ goals

36%

Pirin Razlog 3+ goals

14%

Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals

67%

Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals

31%

Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)

55%

Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Razlog at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.11 · 130 matches

Vitosha Bistritsa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Razlog attack 1.35 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.13 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pirin Razlog scores more

40%

level

28%

Vitosha Bistritsa scores more

33%

Pirin Razlog at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pirin Razlog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff