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Vitosha Bistritsa vs Pirin Blagoevgrad II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
FT
5 – 0
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
10/30/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 15Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Vitosha Bistritsa63%
×Draw22%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitosha Bistritsa
1.92
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
0.83

Vitosha Bistritsa creates 131% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 37 away

creates per match

Vitosha Bistritsa
1.80
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
0.62

allows per match

Vitosha Bistritsa
1.04
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
2.05

finishing

Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par
Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitosha Bistritsa ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vitosha Bistritsa or draw
84%
Vitosha Bistritsa or Pirin Blagoevgrad II
78%
Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad II
37%

Winning margin

Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
38%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
85%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
57%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
30%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals
56%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals
20%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
80%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitosha Bistritsa at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.04 · 70 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.80 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.92

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.62 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
63%
level
22%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more
16%

Vitosha Bistritsa at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Vitosha Bistritsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Vitosha Bistritsa 5–0 Pirin Blagoevgrad II

Vitosha Bistritsa beat Pirin Blagoevgrad II 5-0 in Third League - Southwest on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Vitosha in Bistrica.