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Pirin Blagoevgrad II vs Vitosha Bistritsa — Third League - Southwest 2018

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
FT
0 – 3
Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
5/14/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 34Stadion Rila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II26%
×Draw26%
Vitosha Bistritsa48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
1.04
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.51

Vitosha Bistritsa creates 45% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 69 away

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
0.89
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.13

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
1.89
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.19

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par
Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad II ↓

Vitosha Bistritsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad II or draw
52%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II or Vitosha Bistritsa
74%
Draw or Vitosha Bistritsa
74%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+
10%
Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals
65%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals
28%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals
9%
Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
78%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
44%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)
35%
Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad II at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

Vitosha Bistritsa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.89 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.13 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more
26%
level
26%
Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
48%

Vitosha Bistritsa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vitosha Bistritsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pirin Blagoevgrad II vs Vitosha Bistritsa

Vitosha Bistritsa beat Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3-0 in Third League - Southwest on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Rila in Rila.