Vitosha Bistritsa 3–1 Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

Vitosha Bistritsa

FT

3 – 1

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

8/28/2021

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 5Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Vitosha Bistritsa61%

×Draw21%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vitosha BistritsaExpected goals in this matchNadezhda Dobroslavtsi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.06

Vitosha Bistritsa

2.08

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.06

Vitosha Bistritsa creates 96% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 78 away

1.80

creates per match

1.09

1.04

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.80

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.09

allows per match

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.04

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitosha Bistritsa ↓

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Vitosha Bistritsa or draw

81%

Vitosha Bistritsa or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

79%

Draw or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

39%

Winning margin

Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+

37%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals

87%

Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals

61%

Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals

34%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals

65%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals

29%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)

76%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitosha Bistritsa at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.04 · 70 matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.37 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.80 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.08

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.09 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Vitosha Bistritsa scores more

61%

level

21%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more

19%

Vitosha Bistritsa at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Vitosha Bistritsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff