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Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi vs Vitosha Bistritsa — Third League - Southwest 2018

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
3/19/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 24Stadion Dobroslavtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi37%
×Draw27%
Vitosha Bistritsa36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.27
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 69 away

creates per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.35
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.13

allows per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.32
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.19

finishing

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par
Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi ↓

Vitosha Bistritsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or draw
64%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or Vitosha Bistritsa
73%
Draw or Vitosha Bistritsa
63%

Winning margin

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+
16%
Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals
72%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals
36%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals
14%
Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
71%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
35%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)
51%
Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

Vitosha Bistritsa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.35 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.13 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more
37%
level
27%
Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
36%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3–0 Vitosha Bistritsa

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi beat Vitosha Bistritsa 3-0 in Third League - Southwest on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Dobroslavtsi in Dobroslavtsi.