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Vitosha Bistritsa vs Levski Chepintsi — Third League - Southwest 2018

Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
FT
5 – 0
Levski Chepintsi
Levski Chepintsi
9/25/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 9Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vitosha Bistritsa78%
×Draw14%
Levski Chepintsi8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitosha Bistritsa
2.79
Levski Chepintsi
0.82

Vitosha Bistritsa creates 240% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 36 away

creates per match

Vitosha Bistritsa
1.80
Levski Chepintsi
0.61

allows per match

Vitosha Bistritsa
1.04
Levski Chepintsi
3.78

finishing

Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par
Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitosha Bistritsa ↓

Levski Chepintsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Vitosha Bistritsa or draw
92%
Vitosha Bistritsa or Levski Chepintsi
86%
Draw or Levski Chepintsi
22%

Winning margin

Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
57%
Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
94%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
76%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
52%
Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals
56%
Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals
20%
Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
90%
Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitosha Bistritsa at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.04 · 70 matches

Levski Chepintsi away — creates 0.61, concedes 3.78 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.80 + Levski Chepintsi defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.79

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.61 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
78%
level
14%
Levski Chepintsi scores more
8%

Vitosha Bistritsa at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Vitosha Bistritsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Vitosha Bistritsa 5–0 Levski Chepintsi

Vitosha Bistritsa beat Levski Chepintsi 5-0 in Third League - Southwest on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Vitosha in Bistrica.