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Levski Chepintsi vs Vitosha Bistritsa — Third League - Southwest 2018

Levski Chepintsi
Levski Chepintsi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
4/9/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 28Stadion Chepintsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Levski Chepintsi25%
×Draw26%
Vitosha Bistritsa49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Chepintsi
1.00
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.50

Vitosha Bistritsa creates 50% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 69 away

creates per match

Levski Chepintsi
0.81
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.13

allows per match

Levski Chepintsi
1.86
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.19

finishing

Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par
Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Chepintsi ↓

Vitosha Bistritsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Levski Chepintsi or draw
51%
Levski Chepintsi or Vitosha Bistritsa
74%
Draw or Vitosha Bistritsa
75%

Winning margin

Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+
9%
Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals
63%
Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals
26%
Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals
8%
Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
78%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
44%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)
34%
Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Chepintsi at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

Vitosha Bistritsa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.81 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.00

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.13 + Levski Chepintsi defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Levski Chepintsi scores more
25%
level
26%
Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
49%

Vitosha Bistritsa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vitosha Bistritsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Chepintsi vs Vitosha Bistritsa

Levski Chepintsi and Vitosha Bistritsa drew 0-0 in Third League - Southwest on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Chepintsi in Chepintsi.