Vitosha Bistritsa 1–1 Dobrudzha: Result & Stats

Vitosha Bistritsa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dobrudzha

T. Vachev 68'

S. Mitev 7'

11/7/2022

Second League · Round 16Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Vitosha Bistritsa42%

×Draw28%

Dobrudzha30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vitosha BistritsaExpected goals in this matchDobrudzha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.01

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.25

Dobrudzha

1.01

Vitosha Bistritsa creates 24% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 101 away

1.10

creates per match

0.89

1.14

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.10

Dobrudzha

0.89

allows per match

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.14

Dobrudzha

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitosha Bistritsa ↓

Dobrudzha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Vitosha Bistritsa or draw

70%

Vitosha Bistritsa or Dobrudzha

72%

Draw or Dobrudzha

58%

Winning margin

Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+

19%

Dobrudzha wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals

71%

Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals

36%

Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals

13%

Dobrudzha 1+ goals

64%

Dobrudzha 2+ goals

27%

Dobrudzha 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)

58%

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitosha Bistritsa at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Dobrudzha away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.40 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.10 + Dobrudzha defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dobrudzha attack 0.89 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vitosha Bistritsa scores more

42%

level

28%

Dobrudzha scores more

30%

Vitosha Bistritsa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vitosha Bistritsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

20'

33'

33'

54'

56'

58'

D. Ganchev← K. Uzunov

58'

K. Dimitrov← S. Slavkov

60'

V. Spasov

62'

H. Dimitrov← E. Gargorov

62'

R. Iliev← D. Charlov

68'

T. Vachev

77'

M. Nachev

79'

S. Statev← M. Milushev

88'

Daniel Stoyanov← A. Dimitrov

Vitosha

Dobrudzha

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: N. Hristozov

58'▲D. Ganchev←▼K. Uzunov

58'▲K. Dimitrov←▼S. Slavkov

62'▲H. Dimitrov←▼E. Gargorov

62'▲R. Iliev←▼D. Charlov

Vitosha Bistritsa substitutes

GanchevDimitrovDimitrovIlievNaydenovStavrevSpasov

Manager: S. Angelov

79'▲S. Statev←▼M. Milushev

88'▲Daniel Stoyanov←▼A. Dimitrov

Dobrudzha substitutes

StatevStoyanovZhekovIvanovMinchevSlavkovSerafimov

Second League: Vitosha Bistritsa 1–1 Dobrudzha

Vitosha Bistritsa and Dobrudzha drew 1-1 in Second League on November 7, 2022.

Goals: S. Mitev (7'), T. Vachev (68').

The match was played at Stadion Vitosha in Bistrica.

Vitosha Bistritsa vs Dobrudzha — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League: Vitosha Bistritsa 1–1 Dobrudzha