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Dobrudzha vs Vitosha Bistritsa — Second League 2018

Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
CANC
00:00
Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
4/24/2021Second LeagueSecond League · Round 29Stadion Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Dobrudzha56%
×Draw25%
Vitosha Bistritsa19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobrudzha
1.59
Vitosha Bistritsa
0.80

Dobrudzha creates 99% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 21 away

creates per match

Dobrudzha
1.43
Vitosha Bistritsa
0.71

allows per match

Dobrudzha
0.89
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.76

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par
Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Vitosha Bistritsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw
81%
Dobrudzha or Vitosha Bistritsa
75%
Draw or Vitosha Bistritsa
44%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+
30%
Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals
80%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
47%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
21%
Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
55%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
19%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
75%
Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.89 · 100 matches

Vitosha Bistritsa away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 1.43 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.59

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 0.71 + Dobrudzha defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dobrudzha scores more
56%
level
25%
Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
19%

Dobrudzha at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dobrudzha face Vitosha Bistritsa (Second League)

Second League returns with Dobrudzha hosting Vitosha Bistritsa. Match starts April 24, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dobrudzha host Vitosha Bistritsa at Stadion Druzhba.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.