Vitosha Bistritsa 1–1 Chavdar Etropole

Vitosha Bistritsa

FT

1 – 1

Chavdar Etropole

10/6/2021

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 11Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Vitosha Bistritsa44%

×Draw25%

Chavdar Etropole31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vitosha BistritsaExpected goals in this matchChavdar Etropole

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.29

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.57

Chavdar Etropole

1.29

Vitosha Bistritsa creates 22% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 87 away

1.80

creates per match

1.55

1.04

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.80

Chavdar Etropole

1.55

allows per match

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.04

Chavdar Etropole

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitosha Bistritsa ↓

Chavdar Etropole →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Vitosha Bistritsa or draw

69%

Vitosha Bistritsa or Chavdar Etropole

75%

Draw or Chavdar Etropole

56%

Winning margin

Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+

22%

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals

79%

Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals

46%

Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals

21%

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals

72%

Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals

37%

Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)

58%

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitosha Bistritsa at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.04 · 70 matches

Chavdar Etropole away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.34 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.80 + Chavdar Etropole defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.57

Chavdar Etropole attack 1.55 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vitosha Bistritsa scores more

44%

level

25%

Chavdar Etropole scores more

31%

Vitosha Bistritsa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vitosha Bistritsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff