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Chavdar Etropole vs Vitosha Bistritsa — Third League - Southwest 2018

Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
4/20/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 30Stadion Chavdar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Chavdar Etropole53%
×Draw25%
Vitosha Bistritsa23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chavdar Etropole
1.64
Vitosha Bistritsa
0.98

Chavdar Etropole creates 67% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 69 away

creates per match

Chavdar Etropole
2.08
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.13

allows per match

Chavdar Etropole
0.84
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.19

finishing

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par
Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chavdar Etropole ↓

Vitosha Bistritsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chavdar Etropole or draw
77%
Chavdar Etropole or Vitosha Bistritsa
75%
Draw or Vitosha Bistritsa
47%

Winning margin

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
28%
Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
81%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
49%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
23%
Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
62%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
26%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
70%
Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chavdar Etropole at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

Vitosha Bistritsa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chavdar Etropole attack 2.08 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.64

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.13 + Chavdar Etropole defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chavdar Etropole scores more
53%
level
25%
Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
23%

Chavdar Etropole at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Chavdar Etropole 1–2 Vitosha Bistritsa

Vitosha Bistritsa beat Chavdar Etropole 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on April 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Chavdar in Etropole.