Vitosha Bistritsa 1–2 Beroe: Result & Stats

Vitosha Bistritsa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Beroe

G. Amzin 3'

G. Makouta 88'

A. Fall 24'

2/23/2020

First League · Round 22Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Vitosha Bistritsa33%

×Draw27%

Beroe40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vitosha BistritsaExpected goals in this matchBeroe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.36

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.20

Beroe

1.36

Beroe creates 13% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 138 away

0.93

creates per match

0.93

1.80

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Vitosha Bistritsa

0.93

Beroe

0.93

allows per match

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.80

Beroe

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Beroe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitosha Bistritsa ↓

Beroe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Vitosha Bistritsa or draw

60%

Vitosha Bistritsa or Beroe

73%

Draw or Beroe

67%

Winning margin

Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+

14%

Beroe wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals

70%

Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals

34%

Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals

12%

Beroe 1+ goals

74%

Beroe 2+ goals

39%

Beroe 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)

45%

Beroe (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitosha Bistritsa at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 30 matches

Beroe away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.46 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 0.93 + Beroe defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.20

Beroe attack 0.93 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vitosha Bistritsa scores more

33%

level

27%

Beroe scores more

40%

Beroe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Beroe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

22'

24'

35'

56'

64'

71'

72'

76'

77'

88'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

VitoshaBeroe

Overview

50%Possession50%

5Total Shots10

4Corners6

12Fouls21

Shots

5Total Shots10

3On Target5

2Off Target5

Passing

50%Possession50%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls21

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Vitosha Bistritsa vs Beroe

Beroe beat Vitosha Bistritsa 2-1 in First League on February 23, 2020.

Goals: G. Amzin (3'), A. Fall (24'), G. Makouta (88').

Vitosha Bistritsa controlled possession (50%) and registered 5 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadion Vitosha in Bistrica.

Vitosha Bistritsa vs Beroe — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Vitosha Bistritsa vs Beroe