Beroe 1–0 Vitosha Bistritsa: Result & Stats

Beroe

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vitosha Bistritsa

Z. Josipovic 84'

9/16/2019

First League · Round 9Stadion Beroe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Beroe55%

×Draw27%

Vitosha Bistritsa18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeroeExpected goals in this matchVitosha Bistritsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.71

Beroe

1.45

Vitosha Bistritsa

0.71

Beroe creates 104% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 31 away

1.22

creates per match

0.42

1.01

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Beroe

1.22

Vitosha Bistritsa

0.42

allows per match

Beroe

1.01

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beroe+0.00on par

Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beroe ↓

Vitosha Bistritsa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Beroe or draw

82%

Beroe or Vitosha Bistritsa

73%

Draw or Vitosha Bistritsa

45%

Winning margin

Beroe wins by 2+

28%

Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Beroe 1+ goals

77%

Beroe 2+ goals

42%

Beroe 3+ goals

18%

Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals

51%

Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals

16%

Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Beroe (draw refunded)

75%

Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beroe at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 137 matches

Vitosha Bistritsa away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beroe attack 1.22 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.45

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 0.42 + Beroe defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Beroe scores more

55%

level

27%

Vitosha Bistritsa scores more

18%

Beroe at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Beroe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

19'

36'

44'

46'

T. Kouroupis← T. Gochev

63'

Z. Josipovic← M. Kamburov

68'

K. Kochilov← L. Kotev

71'

I. Minchev← C. Ohene

74'

Rúben Brígido← Wanderson

75'

A. Palomique← A. Kabov

84'

Z. Josipovic

Possession

Shots

Statistics

BeroeVitosha

Overview

64%Possession36%

15Total Shots3

9Corners5

13Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots3

4On Target1

11Off Target2

Passing

64%Possession36%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

4Offsides3