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Vitosha Bistritsa vs Arda Kardzhali — First League 2026

Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
8/2/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Vitosha Bistritsa28%
×Draw27%
Arda Kardzhali45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitosha Bistritsa
1.05
Arda Kardzhali
1.40

Arda Kardzhali creates 33% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 120 away

creates per match

Vitosha Bistritsa
0.93
Arda Kardzhali
0.99

allows per match

Vitosha Bistritsa
1.80
Arda Kardzhali
1.17

finishing

Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par
Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitosha Bistritsa ↓

Arda Kardzhali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vitosha Bistritsa or draw
55%
Vitosha Bistritsa or Arda Kardzhali
73%
Draw or Arda Kardzhali
72%

Winning margin

Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
11%
Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
65%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
28%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
9%
Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
75%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
41%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
39%
Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitosha Bistritsa at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 30 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 0.93 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Arda Kardzhali attack 0.99 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
28%
level
27%
Arda Kardzhali scores more
45%

Arda Kardzhali at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitosha Bistritsa vs Arda Kardzhali

Arda Kardzhali beat Vitosha Bistritsa 3-1 in First League on August 2, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Vitosha in Bistrica.