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Arda Kardzhali vs Vitosha Bistritsa — First League 2026

Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
11/22/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Arda Kardzhali56%
×Draw25%
Vitosha Bistritsa18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arda Kardzhali
1.56
Vitosha Bistritsa
0.77

Arda Kardzhali creates 103% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 31 away

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.45
Vitosha Bistritsa
0.42

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.11
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.68

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par
Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Vitosha Bistritsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw
82%
Arda Kardzhali or Vitosha Bistritsa
75%
Draw or Vitosha Bistritsa
44%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
30%
Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
79%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
46%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
21%
Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
54%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
18%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
75%
Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 119 matches

Vitosha Bistritsa away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.45 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.56

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 0.42 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more
56%
level
25%
Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
18%

Arda Kardzhali at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Arda Kardzhali 2–0 Vitosha Bistritsa

Arda Kardzhali beat Vitosha Bistritsa 2-0 in First League on November 22, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Plovdiv.