Vitoria 0–1 Vila Nova: Result & Stats | Serie B

Vitoria

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vila Nova

11/28/2021

Serie B · Round 38Estádio Manoel Barradas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Vitoria47%

×Draw29%

Vila Nova24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VitoriaExpected goals in this matchVila Nova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.83

Vitoria

1.29

Vila Nova

0.83

Vitoria creates 55% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 137 away

1.23

creates per match

0.91

0.75

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Vitoria

1.23

Vila Nova

0.91

allows per match

Vitoria

0.75

Vila Nova

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitoria+0.00on par

Vila Nova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria ↓

Vila Nova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Vitoria or draw

76%

Vitoria or Vila Nova

71%

Draw or Vila Nova

53%

Winning margin

Vitoria wins by 2+

22%

Vila Nova wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vitoria 1+ goals

72%

Vitoria 2+ goals

37%

Vitoria 3+ goals

14%

Vila Nova 1+ goals

56%

Vila Nova 2+ goals

20%

Vila Nova 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Vitoria (draw refunded)

66%

Vila Nova (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.75 · 69 matches

Vila Nova away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.34 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria attack 1.23 + Vila Nova defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Vila Nova attack 0.91 + Vitoria defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vitoria scores more

47%

level

29%

Vila Nova scores more

24%

Vitoria at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff