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Vila Nova vs Vitoria — Serie B 2026

Vila Nova
Vila Nova
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vitoria
Vitoria
8/18/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 19Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Vila Nova44%
×Draw30%
Vitoria27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vila Nova
1.21
Vitoria
0.87

Vila Nova creates 39% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 66 away

creates per match

Vila Nova
1.14
Vitoria
1.02

allows per match

Vila Nova
0.72
Vitoria
1.29

finishing

Vila Nova+0.00on par
Vitoria+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vila Nova ↓

Vitoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Vila Nova or draw
73%
Vila Nova or Vitoria
70%
Draw or Vitoria
56%

Winning margin

Vila Nova wins by 2+
19%
Vitoria wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vila Nova 1+ goals
70%
Vila Nova 2+ goals
34%
Vila Nova 3+ goals
12%
Vitoria 1+ goals
58%
Vitoria 2+ goals
22%
Vitoria 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vila Nova (draw refunded)
62%
Vitoria (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vila Nova at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.72 · 133 matches

Vitoria away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.29 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vila Nova attack 1.14 + Vitoria defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Vitoria attack 1.02 + Vila Nova defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vila Nova scores more
44%
level
30%
Vitoria scores more
27%

Vila Nova at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vila Nova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vila Nova vs Vitoria

Vila Nova and Vitoria drew 0-0 in Serie B on August 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga in Goiânia, Goiás.